30 April 2020
New York: Researchers have created a mathematical model which showed that the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic might be over in the US by around late June this year. According to the study, published in the journal Mathematics, the model accurately estimates the death toll linked to the COVID-19 pandemic in the US and could be used around the world.
"Based on data available on April 28, the model showed that the COVID-19 pandemic might be over in the US, meaning no more American deaths, by around late June 2020," said study researchers Hoang Pham, a distinguished professor at Rutgers University-New Brunswick in the US.
"But if testing and contact tracing strategies, social-distancing policies, reopening of community strategies or stay-at-home policies change significantly in the coming days and weeks, the predicted death toll will also change," Pham added. The model predicted the death toll would eventually reach about 68,120 in the US as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19. That's based on data available on April 28, and there was high confidence (99 per cent) the expected death toll would be between 66,055 and 70,304.
The model's estimates and predictions closely match reported death totals. According to the researchers, the next steps include applying the model to global COVID-19 death data as well as to other nations such as Italy and Spain, both of which have experienced thousands of deaths due to COVID-19. The model could also be used to evaluate population mortality and the spread of other diseases, the study said.
The US currently accounts for the highest number of coronavirus cases in the world, as well as deaths. As of Thursday morning, the country recorded 1,039,909 cases, with 60,966 deaths, according to the latest tally by the Johns Hopkins University. New York state, the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, has reported nearly 300,000 coronavirus cases, while its daily death toll fell to the lowest since early March, according to Governor Andrew Cuomo.