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Gujarat Exit Polls: ‘Advantage BJP’, Hardik’s Alliance With Rahul Backfires

14 December 2017


Bhubaneswar: As many as five of seven exit polls reflect a clear advantage for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which is heading towards a significant victory in the Gujarat Assembly elections 2017. On the other hand, six exit polls predict Congress’ loss in the saffron party’s bastion.

Almost all the major exit polls predict more than 100 seats for the BJP in Gujarat, comfortably above the 92-seat majority mark in the 182-seat Assembly.

Exit Poll Figures for Gujarat-2017 Elections

• Sahara Samay-CNX: BJP will retain power in Gujarat, predicts 110-120 seats for BJP and 65-75 seats for Congress

• Times Now Exit Poll: Gave a region-wise breakup for Gujarat with a total of 119 seats for BJP and 70 for the Congress

• Republic TV: Predicts BJP will lead with 108 seats, Congress to get 74 seats in Gujarat

• India Today-My Axis Poll: Predicts close chase in Gujarat for BJP with 99 to 113 seats and between 68 and 82 seats for the 132-year-old Indian National Congress

• ABP News-CSDS Exit Poll: BJP-117, Congress- 64, Others -02

• News 24-Today’s Chanakya Exit Poll: BJP- 135 (+/-11), Congress- 47(+/-11)

• NDTV Poll of polls: BJP- 112, Congress- 70, Others – 0

Hardik’s Calculations Gone Wrong

While there was a buzz about about Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh all joining the Congress, the strategy could possibly backfire. A majority of the Patidars believe joining Congress before the Elections was a wrong strategy.

A majority of the Patidars were supporting Hardik when the ‘Patidar Anamat Andolan’ started. The moment they lent their support to the Gandhi family scion, people have started suspecting their personal ambitions over community interests.

"Hardik is in support of reservation while Alpesh is against the reservation to Patidars. And now both are supporting Rahul Gandhi and claim that the Congress will fulfil our demand," a Patidar told this News Portal.

Community-Wise Leaning for BJP

‘Patidars’ account for over 16 per cent of the State’s population and most of them have traditionally been with the BJP. The OBCs account for at least 40 per cent, and the ‘Thakurs’, who form 26 per cent of the population, have drifted to the BJP from the Congress. While the Dalits, who comprise 7 per cent of the electorate, are traditional Congress voters. But a majority of them have switched allegiance to the BJP in 2017.

Voting Statistics in Gujarat

Voting has ended in the second phase of the Gujarat assembly elections 2017. Voter turnout was 11.7 per cent till 10 am, which climbed to 62.37 per cent at 4 pm, an hour before voting closed.

The voting statistics finally settled at 68.7 per cent when polling culminated at 5 pm in the Gujarat assembly polls. This is less than 71.3 per cent voter turnout recorded in the previous Gujarat assembly elections in 2012.

Exit Polls Relevance

While, exit poll surveys in the past have demonstrated a mixed accuracy in predicting election results, for the Gujarat polls noted psephologists have opined that this time, the prediction are going to favour BJP, with little margin of error.

Exit polls have accurately predicted the poll results of the assembly elections for Assam (BJP), Kerala (Left Democratic Front), Puducherry and West Bengal (Trinamool).

In Uttar Pradesh, while no polling agency was able to successfully sense the saffron party’s seat count, most predicted that it would be the single largest party.

However, the predictions were topsy-turvy for Tamil Nadu in which most agencies failed to gauge the performance of Jayalalitha-led AIADMK. ‘Amma’ swept the polls in a historic win and DMK-Congress alliance had to bite the dust.

Bickering over Code of Conduct’s Violation

Polling wrapped up in Gujarat at 5 pm with the leaders of two major parties, involving in a verbal duel over violation of the Model Code of Conduct.

Congress alleged that Prime Minister Narendra Modi broke the ‘Code of Conduct’ outside the polling booth in Ranip, Ahmedabad.

The Congress has accused the poll panel of being partial to the BJP, saying it shot off a notice to Rahul Gandhi yesterday but was mum on the PM.